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    THE BridgeNews FORUM: On farming, farm policy 
    and related agricultural issues. 
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* The Netherlands Has A Solution Britain Would Be Wise To Emulate  
  
 

    By David Walker, agricultural economist
    BridgeNews
    NORWICH, England--In contrast to previous foot-and-mouth disease
outbreaks among livestock in Britain, sheep rather than cattle and hogs
have been the main victims this time. New techniques for controlling the
spread, including vaccination, are being considered.
 
    While the British government is getting anything but good grades for
its handling of the foot-and-mouth epidemic, if one looks closely enough
one can find successes.
 
    It has been relatively successful in containing the outbreak in more
southern and eastern areas of England using the usual methods. The
outbreak, however, shows no sign of abating in the sheep-producing areas
of northern and western England, Wales and southwest Scotland. In contrast
to previous British outbreaks, sheep rather than cattle and pig losses
have dominated.
 
    The challenge of controlling outbreaks in sheep are well illustrated
by the first case in Ireland.
 
    The logistics of the case in Ireland are strikingly simple and perhaps
more worrying. It was just across the border from the single reported case
in Northern Ireland and the border was closed to livestock movements
before the Northern Ireland case was reported. The outbreak was, however,
just where it could have been expected from airborne transmission. 
 
    As symptoms of this pan-Asiatic strain of foot-and-mouth disease
develop within two to 14 days, this is the time frame in which the
detection of new cases is expected.  But a full three weeks, well beyond
the incubation period for the virus, elapsed between the two cases.
 
    There are at least two logical explanations, but neither of them is
palatable. The most obvious is that the infection went undetected in the
sheep flock for a week or more. Of course, it could also have been and
still be lurking undetected in nearby livestock.
 
    As Ireland, in contrast to its Britannic neighbor (which the Irish
minister of agriculture has described as "the leper of Europe") takes its
agriculture seriously, this area has been intensively monitored.
 
    One way or the other, the delay suggests the disease must be extremely
difficult to detect early in its development in sheep. This is something
that was perhaps recognized too slowly in Britain.
 
    The solution to the challenge of diagnosis in sheep is "burning
firebreaks" against the spread of infection. But the implementation of a
meaningful firebreak slaughter policy has yet to be implemented with much
conviction, probably because disposal of the increased number of animals
slaughtered is a challenge.
 
    The supply of combustible material for incineration is finite and
environmental concerns have limited the usual method of disposal by
burial. So the prompt dispatch, including slaughter and disposal, of
diagnosed animals has itself developed into an issue.
 
    While most people have been careful to remain focused on getting the
outbreak under control before apportioning blame, it's increasingly 
apparent the government will not come out of any post-mortem well.
 
    With apparent reluctance, the Ministry of Agriculture has accepted the
assistance of the army and some outside management help. Some military
precision is beginning to emerge in burial activities. On top of this
Prime Minister Tony Blair has taken personal responsibility, whatever that
means.
 
    More important, however, is that Britain appears to be considering the
Dutch plan for carcass disposal. In a small country with a large
population, human and livestock, disposing of slaughtered animals both
diagnosed and precautionary would be a major challenge for the Dutch. If
they have a major outbreak, they plan to dispose of slaughtered animals by
rendering, even though their capacity to do this is very limited.
 
    Their solution to this obvious capacity restraint is elegant--to
vaccinate healthy livestock in the vicinity of any outbreak to create the
infection firebreak. This means much of the precautionary slaughter can be
deferred until the outbreak and the pressure on rendering facilities has
passed. Significantly, it has received European Union approval.
 
    Vaccination itself is not a sufficient solution as the definitive lab
test cannot distinguish between animals that have been vaccinated against,
and those infected with, foot-and-mouth disease. Hence the wide use of
vaccines can hide the disease. 
 
    Any country that pursues a vaccination policy is faced with the time
consuming process of vaccinating all livestock possibly against several
strains of foot-and-mouth to rid its livestock of the disease.
 
    It then has to wait until the national herd has been completely
rebuilt with unvaccinated stock and all vaccinated stock have been
slaughtered.
 
    This process has been used widely used, particularly in Europe, to
attain initial foot-and-mouth free status. It is not an attractive option
to a country that has built up trade in livestock and livestock products.
 
    The faster and surer slaughter policy route is more cost-effective.
The use of vaccination in a firebreak context obviously requires care.
Animals vaccinated must be free of the disease and their identity
preserved to ensure they are subsequently slaughtered.
 
    It may be this challenge, particularly for sheep, that is causing the
British government to delay adopting the Dutch plan.
 
    Britain has been given approval for vaccination of dairy cows in
Cumbria, the county most effected. This restriction has probably been
imposed because of the challenge of maintaining the identity of vaccinated
animals until they are slaughtered.
 
    The decision to implement the plan has yet to be made. But the option
of vaccinating dairy cattle, which will allow blood lines to be
maintained, will make the implementation of a fire break policy more
palatable.
 
    Meanwhile in the Netherlands, a handful of cases have been confirmed.
But it is hoped any test of the Dutch plan will occur in Britain rather
than the Netherlands.  End 



  
    DAVID WALKER, an agricultural economist, lives on his family's farm  
outside Norwich, England. He recently served as senior economist in London  
for the Home-Grown Cereals Authority and previously was executive director 
of  the Alberta Grain Commission in Canada. He also maintains a Web site 
at http://www.openi.co.uk/. His views are not necessarily those of BridgeNews, 
whose  ventures include the Internet site http://www.bridge.com/. 
  
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